Many California prisoners get a second chance. A declining parole rate shows that’s no guarantee
CalMatters
Thousands of prisoners in California go before the Board of Parole Hearings each year in hopes of a chance at freedom. It’s a daunting situation that deals in high stakes for all involved.
Parole commissioners must follow legal standards while balancing questions of rehabilitation, public safety and the lasting harms caused by the crime. Convicted offenders must try to present themselves truthfully — warts and all — as their custody files and psychological risk assessments are openly discussed. Victims and prosecutors attend hearings, usually to argue against someone’s parole. Every so often, they advocate for the incarcerated person’s release.
Other than the governor’s veto power, the commissioners’ findings are generally the last buffer against a former criminal being released. Commissioners go through extensive training and take great care in their decisions of whether someone is suitable for parole, as evidenced by a recidivism rate of less than 3% — meaning 97% of prisoners paroled never reoffend. Less than 1% return for crimes involving violence against another person.
Over the last decade or so, California expanded parole opportunities for people convicted of crimes during their youth and for older prisoners. The annual number of parole hearings steadily increased — from 5,226 in 2018 to 9,017 in 2022, before plateauing at about 8,000 in 2023 and remaining there. The state’s prison population also dropped significantly during those years, from 128,000 in 2018 to about 90,000 today.
The California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation has tried to shift its model of incarceration to focus on release from incarceration and re-entering society. Offering young prisoners better opportunities early in their incarceration can help them avoid the pitfalls of drug use, violence and gang activity in prison. Older prisoners generally tend to “age out” of their previous criminal behavior.
By incentivizing rehabilitative programming, substance abuse treatment and higher education, the system now aspires to help offenders work productively toward personal growth and self-improvement.
But at the same time, even with seemingly much more opportunity and incentives, the success rate for prisoners to be found suitable for parole has gradually declined — from 39% in 2018 to roughly 35% for 2019 through 2021 to below 25% in 2025.
CalMatters talked to parole experts to try and understand the dynamics behind the numbers. No one could point to any one reason for the significant decline in parole suitability rates; the experts instead said the downward turn can be attributed to many different factors.
Here’s what we learned:
Some older prisoners struggle at hearings
Many elderly California prisoners with life sentences began their terms decades ago when parole opportunities were scarce. They logically believed they had no hope of ever being paroled. Many were stuck at remote prisons that lacked access to rehabilitative programs. Now they face significant challenges to fully grasp and articulate evidence of personal transformation that parole commissioners require, such as insight, remorse and accountability.
“The number of people who are now elderly parole-eligible is going up in a significant way,” said Lilli Paratore, director of legal services for UnCommon Law, an organization that represents dozens of parole candidates each year at no cost to the prisoners. “In 2013, only 19% of hearings were 60-plus, but now 32% of hearings are people who are 60-plus, and of course that just mirrors the aging prison population.”
About 19,000 prisoners are 55 or older, according to the state budget proposal Gov. Gavin Newsom released this month.